Independent analysis of AI for payments and finance operations

We evaluate AI to guide build, buy or stop decisions and measure the actual value delivered in production.

Our research agenda

ScalePoint Research helps payments and finance leaders pick the right AI model for each step of a process, and know what it will cost and where the data goes before they build or buy. The work covers tests, studies, economic models and demos on real tasks from a map of 51 processes, such as reconciliation, chargebacks and merchant onboarding.

Each piece of work looks at three things:

Workload fit

What a model can do on the task.

Cost

Everything it costs to run, including errors.

Compliance

How the model's use is governed, covering data, access and regulation.

Method →

What our analysis shows so far

New Judgement calls in payments operations (S3) Used out of the box, the low-cost model was a false economy. It was cheaper per case but lost far more where the stakes were high. Opus, low effort385/394Opus, high effort387/394Mistral, reasoning on344/394Mistral, reasoning off251/394 Judgement calls answered right across nine payments and finance processes, by Claude Opus 5.5 and Mistral Medium 3.5 at two reasoning settings each. Read the study → New Judgement calls (S3): full cost per case Mistral saved a cent or two a case on tokens, then lost far more on its wrong decisions. Chargebacks was the only exception. Swipe the chart to see all of it. Full cost per case: model price plus money lost, log scaleOpus lowOpus highMistral reasoning onMistral reasoning offmodel price alone0.1¢1¢10¢$1$10$100$1k$10kChargebacksPayment exceptionsSeller onboardingDeal pricingPayment performanceAccounts payable Model price plus money lost, average per case over one pass, on a log scale. The shaded band is the range of model prices alone. Treasury prefunding, sanctions alerts and scheme changes are left out, and the study explains why. See the full study → Reconciling card and payout income (S2) See the results → Reading card statements (S1) See the results → Open weights against closed Score out of 100 on each test, best model of each kind. Open-weight models can run on a firm's own servers. See hosting and terms → Where the studies sit S1 and S2 cover two of the 11 clusters of payments and finance processes, and S3 covers the other nine with one process from each. Each row shows the study that covered the cluster and how many of its processes were tested. See the process map →

What's new and what's being worked on →

From study result to economic model

Each test has an Excel model, available on request, that turns the results into cost per task, annual cost and payback for a given firm.

See the S2 model → A model for your firm →

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Studies and articles

S3Study NewStudy · 30 October 2026

Judgement calls in payments operations

Claude Opus 5.5 and Mistral Medium 3.5 on judgement calls in nine payments and finance processes, from chargebacks to treasury prefunding. Used out of the box, the low-cost model was a false economy. Read the study →

Custom research and advisory

ScalePoint Research also works with firms directly on their own use cases, through custom research, advisory projects and executive briefings. The work covers five areas:

  • Economic models A model of a use case's cost structure, unit economics, payback and scenarios, with one-off investment kept apart from recurring costs and forecast benefits kept apart from measured ones.
  • Build, buy, combine, scale or stop Whether to build, buy or combine for a given process, which deployment option fits, how to fund it, and when to scale, redesign or stop a use case.
  • Model and Vendor Check Private evaluations of AI models, or a vendor's AI product, on your own cases: accuracy in money, cost per task and where failures sit, plus acceptance tests for the contract.
  • Pricing intelligence Price points for models, hosting and vendor products, and the commercial terms that change cost at scale, built into the economic models.
  • Value realisation How adoption, workflow change, output quality, human oversight and risk affect the cost and the value actually delivered, checked against the business case for live use cases.

About

Martin Koderisch

Martin Koderisch is the founder and lead analyst of ScalePoint Research. He leads the research on the economics of AI in payments and finance operations, and advises payments and fintech businesses on strategic finance, unit economics and value creation.

He spent ten years in operating roles at Citi, Mastercard and the start-up Luup, then nine years at Edgar, Dunn & Company, latterly as a Principal, on more than 75 engagements for banks, fintechs, card networks, private equity firms and merchants. Since 2024 he has worked independently with payments and fintech businesses on strategic finance and value creation. He splits his time between London and Barcelona.

You can also connect on LinkedIn.